Tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following a deadly attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which left 26 tourists dead. India blamed Pakistan-based militants for the assault and responded on Wednesday with a series of airstrikes on targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing at least 31 people.
As the situation draws international attention, world leaders — including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and UN Secretary-General António Guterres — have urged both countries to exercise restraint.
Despite the intensifying conflict, experts believe a full-scale war remains unlikely due to pressing economic concerns faced by both nations.
India claimed that its strikes, under “Operation Sindoor,” were a direct response to the Pahalgam attack, which killed 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali tourist. In contrast, Pakistan denied any involvement and condemned the strikes as “unprovoked aggression.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned of retaliation and claimed that Pakistani forces had shot down five Indian aircraft — a claim New Delhi labeled as “propaganda,” asserting that the circulating wreckage photos were from an old 2021 crash.
Experts: War Not in Either Country’s Interest
Griffith University Professor Ian Hall told SBS News that neither side is interested in escalating the situation to a full-fledged war. “Neither side can truly afford it — politically or economically,” he said.
Dr. Pradeep Taneja, senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne, echoed this sentiment, noting that Pakistan is grappling with a severe economic crisis while India is focused on growing its economy to become the world’s third-largest.
“India’s defense budget is at least eight times larger than Pakistan’s. So engaging in a full-scale war would be futile for Pakistan,” he added.
Although Pakistan’s military has delivered mixed messages compared to the Prime Minister’s statements, Hall said national security advisers from both sides have reportedly spoken by phone — a sign that diplomatic channels are still open.
Historical Background and Recent Tensions
The roots of India-Pakistan hostility go back to the 1947 partition, which triggered a war over Kashmir. Since then, the two countries have fought multiple wars and skirmishes, including major conflicts in 1965, 1971, and a limited war in 1999. Recent years have also seen cross-border strikes in 2016 and 2019.
Following the April 22 attack, India announced a series of diplomatic measures to reduce bilateral ties, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and closure of its only functional land border with Pakistan.
Pakistan, in response, accused India of committing “water terrorism,” referring to Prime Minister Modi’s move to halt water sharing under the treaty. Indian officials argue that the treaty terms are outdated, stating: “Water and blood cannot flow together.”
Is Nuclear Escalation a Threat?
Though both countries possess nuclear arsenals of 200–300 weapons each, experts believe the risk of a nuclear exchange remains low. Hall noted that weapons are not stored near Kashmir and that it would take days for India to even prepare for such a launch. “This is not a Cold War situation where launch could happen within minutes,” he explained.
He emphasized that the presence of nuclear weapons has actually served as a deterrent, preventing large-scale conflict.
The Role of Global Powers
While former U.S. presidents like Bill Clinton once played a key role in de-escalating India-Pakistan tensions, experts say the U.S. has since shifted its focus. Over the last decade, Washington has fostered closer ties with India, moving away from its earlier support for Pakistan.
Despite being a key arms supplier to Pakistan, China is unlikely to intervene in the event of further escalation, say analysts. “China is unhappy with the presence of militant Islamists within Pakistan and has not supported Pakistan in previous conflicts,” said Hall.
Although Beijing has expressed concern over India’s airstrikes, it has shown no signs of offering military support to Islamabad.
