Climate Change Missing from Centre Stage as Election Nears
As the Australian federal election campaign nears its end, climate change has received surprisingly little direct attention from the major parties—despite energy policies taking the spotlight. While the last election was labelled the “climate election,” the current race has seen climate issues take a back seat, even as the stakes grow higher.
A Sharp Divide on Climate Policy
Independent MPs and the Greens have kept climate action on the agenda, positioning it as a critical issue if Australia ends up with a minority government. Labor’s government, during its term, made progress on transitioning to renewables, implementing new laws around corporate climate risk disclosure, emissions standards for cars, and reforms to the safeguard mechanism regulating major polluters. However, it also approved new fossil fuel projects, leading to criticism from climate advocates who argue more needs to be done to phase out coal and gas.
In stark contrast, the Coalition has pledged to undo many of Labor’s climate reforms, proposing to rely heavily on nuclear and gas. Critics argue this approach would delay emissions reductions and send poor signals to investors.
Electric Vehicles and Transport Emissions
Transport accounts for nearly a quarter of Australia’s emissions. Labor introduced new fuel efficiency standards and tax incentives for electric vehicles, while the Coalition promises to roll back these policies—potentially increasing the cost of EVs and weakening climate efforts in the sector. Experts warn this would leave Australia behind global standards and continue its reputation as a market for inefficient cars.
Targets and International Standing
Australia’s current emissions reduction target is 43% by 2030, legislated by the Labor government. The Coalition has criticised this goal and, while still claiming commitment to the Paris Agreement, has avoided setting an alternative. Independent and Greens MPs are pushing for much more ambitious targets—up to 75% by 2030.
Labor has delayed announcing a 2035 target pending advice from the Climate Change Authority. Hosting the UN climate summit is on the table if Labor wins, raising pressure to strengthen its climate stance.
Energy Mix and Nuclear Debate
Labor aims for 82% renewable energy by 2030. The Coalition, meanwhile, is pushing a nuclear path that experts say would significantly slow the transition to renewables. Their modelling shows emissions may be lower by mid-century, but overall, the cumulative pollution would be much higher due to delays in decarbonising. The Clean Energy Council warns this approach could cost Australia $58 billion in missed renewable investment.
Safeguard Mechanism and Industrial Emissions
The safeguard mechanism, reformed by Labor, limits emissions from the nation’s largest polluters and is a key tool in reducing industrial emissions. The Coalition has suggested relaxing the policy, which could further weaken climate efforts. Critics say the mechanism still needs strengthening, particularly around its use of offsets.
Gas and the Capacity Investment Scheme
Labor has used the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) to accelerate clean energy projects. The Coalition wants to expand the scheme to include gas, undermining its clean energy intent. Experts warn that boosting gas now would hinder renewables and delay decarbonisation.
Transmission Grid and Reliability
Building out the electricity grid is crucial for integrating renewable energy. Labor has supported major transmission projects under the Rewiring the Nation program. The Coalition argues its centralised nuclear plan would require less new transmission, but experts say this would be too slow and could compromise system reliability in the short term.
A Fork in the Road
Australia stands at a pivotal moment. The next three years are vital to reaching 2030 targets, and whichever party forms government after May 3 will shape the country’s climate future. A hung parliament could empower independents and the Greens to push for stronger climate action.
“If Labor wins again, it could lock in the transition to renewables before nuclear can even get started,” said Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood. “This really is a fork in the road.”
