Independent candidate Nicolette Boele has emerged as the provisional winner of the traditionally Liberal-held Sydney seat of Bradfield, finishing just 39 votes ahead of Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, according to the latest count.
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) confirmed on Monday evening that Boele had secured 56,231 votes, narrowly edging out her opponent in what has become one of the tightest contests in recent federal electoral history. However, the final outcome remains uncertain, as the official distribution of preferences is yet to be completed.
The AEC will now conduct a formal preference count, where candidates are progressively eliminated until two remain. The figures released so far have only been indicative. If the final margin is fewer than 100 votes, an automatic recount will be triggered.
Boele described the past few weeks as “nail-biting” and expressed her gratitude toward AEC officials and volunteers for their diligence. She also praised Kapterian for maintaining a civil and respectful campaign.
“Despite the close count, Gisele has encouraged civility throughout. I thank her for being a respectful and formidable candidate,” Boele said. “No matter the final result, our community has sent a powerful message to the major parties: we are not the safe seat we used to be.”
ABC election analyst Antony Green noted that the current count is only indicative and that the preference distribution process is expected to continue through the week. If the final result remains within the 100-vote threshold, the recount—expected to take an additional two to three weeks—will include a full re-check of all votes.
Once completed, the result can still be challenged in the Court of Disputed Returns, though Green said such challenges are rare and depend on identifying enough errors to alter the outcome.
Boele previously came close to winning Bradfield in 2022, narrowly missing out to Liberal MP Paul Fletcher. Since then, she has maintained a visible presence in the electorate, campaigning hard for a second chance at the seat.
Kapterian, a former war crimes and trade lawyer, originally secured preselection for the now-defunct North Sydney seat and pivoted to Bradfield after electoral boundary changes. Her margin has steadily decreased in the days following the May 3 federal election.
Although both candidates have remained relatively quiet as counting continues, Boele’s narrow lead has made headlines as a potential turning point for the once-safe Liberal stronghold.
