Labor leader Chris Minns will be the next NSW premier, with his party set to form a majority government, ending 12 years of Coalition rule.
Labor is tipped to gain the 47 seats it needs to govern in its own right, with the ABC predicting as many as 50 seats going to Labor.
An early two-party preferred swing of about 6.4 per cent led to decisive calls by analysts on Saturday night.
“I can confidently say, the Labor Party will form government, we do not know whether it will be a majority or minority, but the swings are now consistent,” he told ABC TV about two hours after polling stations closed.
“The coalition is struggling to get above 27 at this stage. That is not going to turn around, Labor will have more seats in parliament.”
Premier Dominic Perrottet, who became premier 18 months ago after Gladys Berejiklian quit amid an ICAC probe, had sought a fourth term for the coalition.
Deputy Labor leader Prue Car said the party had struck a chord with the people of NSW.
“We made a case for change, and we have made the case for change as a team that has done the work,” Ms Car told the ABC.
“The campaign, thus far, is showing that we really were listening to people, and talking about the bread-and-butter issues that people are concerned about.
Treasurer Matt Kean said he was not surprised by the result, saying after 12 years of coalition government people were looking for change.
“We were hoping for the best and preparing for the worst,” he said.
“Obviously as you can see, it’s not looking as promising anymore in some of the western Sydney seats,” a senior Liberal Party insider told AAP at the Liberal Party election function at Sydney’s Hilton hotel.
The party remained confident in northern Sydney seats where it faced strong challenges from independent candidates, he said.
“None of them are currently, on our count, look like they’re going to get there (for the independents).”
The coalition governed for two years in minority with 46 seats, while Labor held 38 seats, with nine crossbenchers, including three Greens MPs.
Both leaders have campaigned hard in vital seats in Sydney’s west, where a third of NSW voters live and many electorates are on a knife edge.
The premier voted in Beecroft on Saturday accompanied by wife Helen and daughter Celeste, as school volunteers sold cupcakes and sausages to punters.
Mr Minns voted in his ultra-marginal southern Sydney seat of Kogarah, flanked by wife Anna and their three sons, and promising a fresh vision for the state.
“Vote for a fresh start for NSW, for a team that’s got a plan for essential services, for our schools and for our hospitals, who’s going to stand up against privatisation and really put the people of NSW first,” he said.
Earlier on Saturday Prime Minister Anthony Albanese lent his support to Mr Minns’ pitch for premier, campaigning in the Liberal-held seat of Ryde before casting his own vote at a booth in Sydney’s innerwest.
A string of retiring senior Liberal ministers bailing out before the state election showed the Perrottet government didn’t even have confidence in itself, he said.
“It’s time for a change of government,” he told reporters.
