Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has again criticised the AUKUS agreement, claiming the Australian government is basing key decisions on incorrect assumptions about the United States’ capacity to supply nuclear submarines.
Speaking following the announcement of a US review into the AUKUS deal, Mr Turnbull said Defence Minister Richard Marles made an inaccurate claim on ABC’s 7.30, asserting that US submarine production was increasing to meet the pact’s demands.
“Richard Marles said that the rate of production of Virginia-class submarines is increasing. That’s not true,” Mr Turnbull said.
According to Mr Turnbull, the most recent figures presented to the US Congress show the production rate sits at just 1.1 submarines per year — far below what’s needed.
“To meet their own requirements, the US needs to be building two submarines per year by 2028, and 2.33 if they’re to also supply Australia,” he explained.
“Despite more than $10 billion in investment, they haven’t been able to lift production.”
US Review Likely to Prioritise Domestic Needs
The Pentagon’s review is being led by Elbridge Colby, a well-known sceptic of AUKUS. Turnbull believes it’s highly unlikely the review will conclude the US can spare submarines for Australia, particularly as tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific.
“The US Navy already faces a submarine shortage, and given the escalating threat from China and risks of conflict over Taiwan, the review will probably say the US can’t part with submarines — or at the very least, not commit to doing so,” he said.
AUKUS and Trump’s ‘America First’ Doctrine
While Richard Marles continues to urge calm, saying reviews are standard under any new US administration, Mr Turnbull warned that under Donald Trump’s leadership, America’s own interests will always come first.
“They’ll gladly accept the $3 billion we’ve already committed,” he said.
“But whether we actually receive submarines will depend entirely on US law and interests — and right now, those interests are defined by ‘America First’.”
Call for a ‘Plan B’
Despite Mr Marles insisting that Australia has a solid strategy and should not change course, Turnbull said relying on the AUKUS plan without a contingency risks leaving Australia vulnerable.
“The Collins-class submarines are nearing retirement. Without a backup plan, we could find ourselves with no submarine capability at all,” he said.
Turnbull criticised Scott Morrison, who signed the AUKUS agreement after cancelling Australia’s previous submarine deal with France, and suggested that alternative defence investments — including long-range missiles and bombers — may be necessary.
“If it turns out we get no submarines, maybe Morrison’s legacy will be that,” he said.
“In that case, we should focus on building the support infrastructure, leave submarine operations to the US, and invest in other long-range capabilities to protect ourselves.”
