Tim Wilson has regained the Melbourne seat of Goldstein, bringing it back into the hands of the Liberal Party. Zoe Daniel, after serving one term, is set to lose her seat, with postal vote trends strongly favoring Wilson, the former Liberal representative. Daniel becomes the first of the “teal” independents to lose her seat, having taken Goldstein from Wilson three years ago. Wilson has chosen not to comment yet, stating he will speak more on Wednesday.
Initial results on election night showed Daniel ahead, but Wilson closed the gap and eventually overtook her. Absent votes still need to be counted, but independents traditionally perform poorly in this category, and it was Daniel’s weakest in 2022.
The future of Monique Ryan’s seat of Kooyong is still uncertain, as Liberal Amelia Hamer challenges her strongly. Other “teal” independents, including Kate Chaney, Allegra Spender, Zali Steggall, and Sophie Scamps, have secured re-election. Meanwhile, Ben Smith, another Climate 200-backed independent, is in a close race with Liberal Zoe McKenzie for the Flinders seat.
Labor’s Sarah Race is ahead of Smith on primary votes, though the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has suspended the Liberal-Labor preference count.
The seat of Melbourne remains undecided, with Labor’s Sarah Witty having a chance of defeating Greens leader Adam Bandt. Bandt, who has held the seat since 2010, faces a more difficult fight due to a boundary redistribution in 2024, which reduced the Greens’ stronghold areas. Antony Green noted that Bandt needs to secure a third of preferences to retain his seat. The AEC’s preference counts suggest Labor leads in the two-candidate preferred count, keeping their hopes alive.
In Bendigo, Labor’s Lisa Chesters continues to lead despite a significant swing against the ALP, but she needs 45.3% of preferences to secure re-election, currently at 43.2%, with Nationals’ Andrew Lethlean remaining in the race. Labor is still expected to win in Menzies, but the preference count remains unavailable for Monash.
In the safe Labor seat of Calwell, Basem Abdo leads over Liberal Usman Ghani, but with no preference counts available, the outcome remains uncertain.
