Canada’s election campaign ended in an unusually subdued manner after a tragic incident in which an SUV drove into a crowd at a community festival, killing at least 11 people. Party leaders scaled back their events, though it’s unlikely more rallies would have changed the dominant story of the campaign: the Liberals’ dramatic comeback.
Only three and a half months ago, the governing Liberals were trailing the opposition Conservatives by 25 percentage points. After nearly a decade in power and with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity declining, defeat seemed inevitable.
Then Donald Trump returned to the White House.
“Our heads are spinning at how fast things have changed,” said David Coletto, CEO of polling firm Abacus Data.
“It’s rare globally to see a ruling party, after 10 years in power and being highly unpopular, quickly replace their leader and become election favourites within weeks.”
Most polls now show the Liberals ahead, thanks to new leader and former central banker Mark Carney, who took over after Trudeau’s resignation.
A political shift
When Mr Carney assumed leadership in March, the Liberals had already started closing the gap with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — momentum that accelerated once President Trump turned his attention to Canada.
Trump not only threatened but also implemented heavy tariffs on Canadian goods, and even suggested that Canada would be better off as the 51st American state.
Despite claims that Trump was just “trolling” Canada, the rhetoric continued. Last week, he remarked that without the U.S., Canada would “cease to exist… certainly as a country.”
The more Trump commented, the more Canada’s political dynamics shifted.
“I can’t recall another election where our expectations were so completely overturned,” said Jennifer Ditchburn of the IRPP think tank.
“Canadians suddenly found themselves confronting existential threats from a nation they considered a close ally.”
Polls show voters trust Mr Carney and the Liberals more than Mr Poilievre and the Conservatives to stand up to Trump.
“[The Conservatives] were on track to securing the largest majority in Canadian history, and it all fell apart within a few months,” said Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke, who recently helped Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s re-election.
Teneycke believes Mr Poilievre reacted too slowly, not mentioning Trump until well into the campaign, despite it being the dominant voter concern.
Trump fatigue
Teneycke also noted that the Conservative slogan “Canada First” and the campaign’s style reminded voters too much of Trump’s brand, making many uneasy.
“He ended up looking like the Canadian version of the MAGA movement, and people just aren’t interested in that right now,” he said.
Trump’s comments fueled protests across Canada. In retaliation against U.S. tariffs, Canadian stores have pulled American liquor from shelves, and consumers are opting for Canadian products instead.
“If you ask Canadians how they feel, they’d say betrayed or disappointed,” said Ditchburn.
“People are using their wallets to vote against the Trump administration and are reconsidering their reliance on the U.S. It’s unsettling.”
Interestingly, the Liberals’ gains didn’t mostly come at the Conservatives’ expense — Conservative support remained steady at around 40 per cent. Poilievre’s critiques on cost of living and housing still resonated.
However, smaller parties like the left-leaning New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois, which advocates for Quebec sovereignty, have been hardest hit.
“In Canada’s first-past-the-post system, like the UK’s, third parties can be very influential,” explained Coletto.
“But aside from Trump’s impact, the collapse of the New Democrats has been the other major story — they’ve lost almost half their previous support, much of which has shifted to the Liberals.”
As election day neared, polls showed a tightening race. Still, just months ago, few would have predicted that Mark Carney and the Liberals would even be contenders — let alone favourites to win.
