On election night in 2010, Tony Windsor was celebrating his re-election to the seat of New England with supporters in Tamworth.
“It was a pretty jubilant night,” Windsor recalled.
Meanwhile, a few hours away, Rob Oakeshott was also celebrating his win in Lyne, initially hoping he could take his kids camping after the election.
“Probably three or four beers in, around 11 o’clock, the calls started coming in, and I realised the next morning would be hectic,” Oakeshott said.
He would be “pretty busy” for much longer than a morning.
The 2010 election resulted in Australia’s first federal hung parliament in 70 years, with Labor and the Coalition locked at 72 seats each. Both leaders, Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, had to negotiate with crossbench MPs to form government.
Oakeshott, Windsor, and four other crossbenchers found themselves in 17 days of intense talks with both Gillard and Abbott.
Today, major parties are keen to avoid another hung parliament, while many on the expanded crossbench are hoping for one to gain greater influence.
The 2022 election produced a much larger crossbench, increasing the possibility that no party will achieve an outright majority.
Deadlock and negotiations
In 2010, Greens MP Adam Bandt supported Gillard, while WA National Tony Crook leaned toward Abbott. Andrew Wilkie, a surprise winner, also supported Gillard after securing a promise of poker machine reforms.
“I expected political giants in Canberra,” Wilkie said. “Instead, I discovered there are fewer giants than I thought.”
With Bandt and Wilkie siding with Labor, the final decision rested with Windsor, Oakeshott, and Bob Katter. They coordinated joint briefings to avoid being played off against each other.
The current crossbench is much larger, more urban-based, and poses a greater challenge to major parties.
Oakeshott and Windsor say negotiations with Abbott quickly soured.
“Tony assumed country MPs would naturally support him,” Windsor said. “When that didn’t happen, he flooded us with offers and promises, but it seemed insincere.”
Oakeshott said fundamental policy differences, especially on climate change and the NBN, created early roadblocks.
In the end, Katter backed Abbott, while Windsor and Oakeshott supported Gillard, giving Labor a slim majority.
Lessons from 2010: no formal deals
While the Greens achieved key wins like dental care for kids and clean energy investment, many other 2010 promises never materialized.
“Did we get everything? No. But we made real change,” Bandt said.
Oakeshott said he would seek firmer commitments if faced with similar negotiations again.
“We left things vague, and most promises fell over,” he said.
Wilkie, whose promised pokies reforms were abandoned, said he later had more influence operating independently.
“Next time, no formal deals,” Wilkie said.
Most current crossbenchers seem to agree and say they won’t sign formal agreements with either major party.
“I think the preference now is to keep it flexible,” Oakeshott said.
Avoiding the media spectacle
Oakeshott and Windsor faced intense backlash for backing Labor in their traditionally conservative seats.
Oakeshott remembered bomb threats during community meetings.
Current independents, many from former Liberal strongholds, could face similar pressures if forced to choose sides.
Oakeshott stressed his decision was based on local and national interests, not party labels.
He also regretted the long, high-profile media announcement of his decision in 2010.
“I should have made the announcement quietly back home, on my own terms,” he said.
The unpredictable future
Hung parliaments can vary dramatically.
We might see both major parties stuck far from 76 seats, making internal crossbench dynamics crucial.
Alternatively, one party could fall just short and need to negotiate issue by issue with a diverse crossbench.
Or a party could win a clear majority — though if independents hold their ground, the threat of future hung parliaments will linger into 2028 and beyond.
Much depends on what voters decide next weekend.
