Anthony Albanese appears poised for an unexpected political resurgence, with the latest Newspoll suggesting he could be re-elected as Prime Minister — potentially even securing a majority government.
After enduring a tough year marked by the failure of the Voice referendum and repeated forecasts that Labor would fall short of winning enough seats to govern alone, recent polling indicates the momentum is shifting in Labor’s favour.
The Liberal Party has now fallen to a lower primary vote than it recorded under Scott Morrison at the 2022 election.
According to The Australian’s exclusive Newspoll, Labor’s support has steadily climbed, buoyed by a wave of big-ticket policy pledges including a $10 billion plan to build 100,000 homes for first home buyers and an expansion of its home loan guarantor scheme. Medicare investment and modest tax cuts have also featured heavily in Labor’s campaign.
The Newspoll suggests two major issues driving Albanese’s comeback: anxiety surrounding the instability of Donald Trump’s presidency and the government’s renewed Medicare push.
Despite the Coalition holding a clear lead in early polls, its advantage has crumbled as voters scrutinise Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s economic and leadership credentials more closely.
Labor’s primary vote has now risen to 34 per cent — its highest in over a year — while the Coalition has slipped to 35 per cent, dipping below its result under Morrison in 2022.
The two-party-preferred split remains at 52–48 per cent in Labor’s favour, a turnaround since the election was called. While these figures suggest a possible minority government, a majority victory remains within reach for Albanese.
Dutton vs. Albanese on Key Issues
Peter Dutton remains ahead on defence and economic management, leading Albanese 35–23 per cent on national security and 34–29 per cent on economic growth.
However, Albanese leads comfortably on healthcare — 42–22 per cent — and has a narrow advantage on tackling cost-of-living pressures. Interestingly, while men prefer Dutton on household expenses, women are significantly more inclined to support Albanese.
The Coalition’s decision to overturn Labor’s tax cuts has also damaged its standing, with Labor seen as better on tax policy by 33–26 per cent. On housing, Albanese and Labor are favoured by 29 per cent of voters, ahead of Dutton’s 24 per cent.
Trump’s Influence
Initially seen as a liability for Albanese, the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s presidency has become a campaign asset. When asked who they trusted more to guide Australia through Trump-era instability, 39 per cent backed Albanese, while 32 per cent chose Dutton. Younger voters, women, and university-educated Australians were more likely to support Albanese on this front.
Redbridge Poll Echoes Labor’s Rise
Separate polling from Redbridge has also charted a Labor recovery. After trailing for months, Labor last month edged ahead on a two-party-preferred basis for the first time in six months, sitting at 51–49.
Analysts credit three factors for Labor’s resurgence: the Reserve Bank’s recent interest rate cut — even though it’s independent of government, voters tend to associate economic relief with the incumbent; the government’s $8 billion Medicare investment, a historic boost for the iconic healthcare scheme; and public anxiety about Trump’s trade policies, which could threaten interest rates and economic stability.
With two weeks remaining until election day, the unexpected Labor recovery has added fresh intensity to the campaign — with the final outcome far from certain.
