Greens Warn House Prices Could Soar by Over $100K Under Major Party Housing Plans
The Greens have issued a stark warning that house prices across Australia could rise by more than $100,000 in the next year, with both major parties unveiling first home buyer policies that critics argue will further inflate the market.
The projection is based on modelling by SQM economist Louis Christopher, who estimates home prices could increase by 8% under Labor’s plan and 15% under the Coalition’s, once enacted.
If accurate, a typical Brisbane home could rise by $72,000 under Labor or $135,000 under the Coalition, while a Sydney home could spike by $112,800 under Labor or $211,500 under the Coalition.
“House prices have risen more than double the rate of wages in the past five years, and now Labor and the Liberals want them to grow even faster. It’s beyond belief,” said Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather.
He argued both policies would worsen affordability, further locking renters and young people out of the housing market.
🔍 The Coalition’s Housing Plan: Mortgage Tax Deductions
- First home buyers earning under $175,000 (singles) or $250,000 (couples) would qualify.
- Buyers could deduct interest on the first $650,000 of a mortgage for up to five years.
- Estimated savings: up to $11,000 per year, or $55,000 total for eligible buyers.
Critics warn the scheme could inflate prices, allowing buyers to borrow more and pushing up competition for a limited housing supply.
🔍 Labor’s Housing Plan: Expanded Deposit Scheme
- All first home buyers will be able to access a 5% deposit scheme, no longer means-tested.
- Labor pledges to build 100,000 homes exclusively for first home buyers using a $10 billion investment.
- Under the scheme, a $1 million home in Sydney could be bought with a $50,000 deposit, and an $850,000 home in Brisbane with $42,500.
Labor’s plan builds on the existing First Home Guarantee, which limits eligibility to singles earning under $125,000 and couples under $200,000.
🏠 Greens Push for Reform: Rent Caps and Tax Overhaul
The Greens argue that both major parties’ plans are inflationary and fail to address underlying causes of housing unaffordability.
Their proposed reforms include:
- Phasing out negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts for investors with multiple properties.
- Rent caps and protections for renters.
- Government investment in public housing and affordable homes for sale and rent.
“You can’t solve the housing crisis without fixing the enormous tax handouts to property investors,” Chandler-Mather said.
He also stressed the party would use a balance of power in a minority parliament to pressure Labor into adopting these policies.
💡 Historical Context: First Home Grants and Market Impact
This isn’t the first time policy for first home buyers has pushed up prices:
- In 2000, John Howard’s $7,000 first home buyer grant was linked to sharp price increases.
- The Productivity Commission has previously warned that grants and concessions often inflate demand and raise prices rather than improve affordability.
📈 Economist Outlook: Price Growth Inevitable Without Supply Fix
Economist Louis Christopher says both major party policies are likely to increase demand without fixing supply, leading to more price pressure.
“You would see prices rise 8–15 per cent, 12 months after the policies were enacted,” he said.
With record-low vacancy rates, rising construction costs, and strong population growth, the housing crunch continues to be one of the most pressing election issues.
📊 In Summary:
- Labor and Coalition plans aim to help first home buyers — but may inflate prices.
- Greens propose structural reform, including tax changes and rent caps.
- Economists say more supply-side solutions are needed to prevent price surges.
