Trump’s Shadow Looms Over Elections in Australia and Canada
In the coming fortnight, voters in both Canada and Australia will head to the polls — and in both nations, conservative opposition parties once tipped to win have seen their support slump.
Canada’s Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, and Australia’s Liberals under Peter Dutton, have both dropped behind their centre-left incumbents in the polls, a parallel political trend noted by experts.
“It’s fascinating to watch these two elections unfold at the same time,” said Dr Ben Wellings from Monash University. “Both Dutton and Poilievre are struggling in the polls, and Trump’s influence is part of the issue for these centre-right leaders.”
After Donald Trump’s 2024 return to the White House and his aggressive trade stance towards allies, conservative momentum faltered in both countries. In Australia, the Coalition had overtaken Labor by late 2023, but its polling numbers sharply declined in February, coinciding with Trump’s inauguration and trade war moves.
In Canada, the Conservatives had been headed for an easy win against Justin Trudeau’s struggling government — but Trudeau’s firm stance against Trump rallied support. When new Prime Minister Mark Carney continued this tough line, Liberal support grew.
“Once a nation’s sovereignty is questioned, the political debate transforms,” said political theorist Clayton Chin.
In Australia, Dutton’s praise of Trump as a “shrewd” dealmaker, and appointing Jacinta Price as shadow minister for government efficiency, further drew links between the Coalition and the Trump playbook. Price’s use of “Make Australia Great Again” and a viral MAGA hat photo added fuel.
Both conservative leaders face internal party factions sympathetic to Trump’s politics, Dr Chin noted, but public reaction hasn’t been kind. Polling shows Australian voters increasingly wary of U.S. influence under Trump, with a Lowy Institute poll revealing two-thirds of Australians lack trust in America’s leadership.
The backlash has surfaced in public commentary too. Australians contributing to the ABC’s Your Say platform voiced frustration, urging their leaders to follow Canada’s lead in confronting Trump’s administration.
“There’s a strong sense of betrayal,” said Dr Chin. “Australia and Canada have long trusted the U.S., even when it conflicted with their values — and now they’re questioning that loyalty.”
While election outcomes remain unpredictable, in Canada the finger-pointing within Conservative ranks has already begun. “Losing a 25-point lead is unforgivable,” admitted conservative strategist Kory Teneycke.
Polls may falter, but both nations’ conservative parties are finding Trump’s shadow a serious liability on the campaign trail.
