Labor Favoured as Election Day Nears, with Bookies and Polls Pointing to Majority Win
As the final hours before Australians head to the polls tick down, bookmakers have made a Labor majority the most likely outcome of the federal election.
Polling from YouGov — known for accurately predicting past elections in Spain, the UK, and Germany — projects Labor could secure as many as 85 seats, easily surpassing the 76 required for a majority. At a minimum, YouGov expects Labor to retain its current majority.
This marks a significant shift in Labor’s fortunes compared to the campaign’s early days. It’s also a worrying forecast for the Coalition, which YouGov estimates could lose up to 11 seats.
Newspoll, released by The Australian on Friday night, also signals a likely return to power for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The survey, conducted between April 27 and May 1, shows Labor leading the Coalition 52.5% to 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis. Labor’s primary vote sits at 33%, slightly higher than in 2022, while the Coalition has dropped to a record low of 34%.
Crucial Seats in NSW and Victoria
In New South Wales, Labor’s path to a majority may include taking the seat of Banks from senior Liberal MP David Coleman. YouGov’s figures show a 3.8% swing to Labor, putting it just ahead at 50.6% on a two-party preferred basis.
In Victoria, the Liberals’ Menzies is also under threat, with YouGov forecasting a narrow Labor lead of 50.3%.
According to YouGov’s Paul Smith, the Coalition’s early expectations of gaining ground in Sydney have evaporated: “Now they’re not picking up any—they’re defending.”
Independents could shake up traditional party strongholds, with Bradfield, Calare, Cowper (NSW), and Wannon (Victoria) all projected to leave Liberal hands. The loss of Wannon would unseat prominent Liberal Dan Tehan.
Queensland: Labor Eyes Gains
Although Labor currently holds just five of Queensland’s 29 seats, YouGov suggests it could flip Bonner from the Liberals and reclaim Brisbane from the Greens. In Bonner, Labor leads on a two-party preferred basis with a projected 4.6% swing. In Brisbane, Labor leads the primary vote against both the Coalition and the Greens.
The seat of Leichhardt, however, is expected to stay with the Coalition despite a slight swing toward Labor. Former MP Warren Entsch’s retirement hasn’t significantly shifted the balance.
Western and South Australia
Western Australia was crucial to Labor’s 2022 win, and analysts expect the party to retain most of its gains. A new seat, Bullwinkel, is expected by YouGov to go Labor’s way, despite some experts tipping a Coalition win.
In South Australia, little change is anticipated. Labor is projected to keep six of the state’s ten seats, while the Coalition retains three. The seat of Sturt may be a key gain for Labor.
Tasmania: Mixed Signals
Labor faces criticism from both fisheries and environmental groups in Tasmania but remains competitive. YouGov projects it will win Braddon, vacated by Liberal Gavin Pearce, with Labor senator Anne Urquhart running.
However, the Coalition is predicted to tighten its grip on Bass, currently held by Liberal rebel Bridget Archer. Labor leader Anthony Albanese has called it a must-win, backing teacher Jess Teesdale.
In Lyons, Labor’s candidate is former state leader Rebecca White. Though she failed to win the Tasmanian premiership three times, YouGov predicts she may succeed in securing the federal seat.
Northern Territory and ACT
Labor holds both NT seats — Solomon and Lingiari — and polling suggests a swing away from the Coalition in both.
In the ACT, Labor is also expected to retain all three seats: Bean, Canberra, and Fenner.
