The Liberal Party’s already poor showing in South Australia during Saturday’s federal election could worsen further, as one of its last two remaining seats in the state is now under threat.
Tom Venning, the Liberal candidate replacing retiring MP Rowan Ramsey, was expected to hold onto the traditionally safe, rural seat of Grey. He currently leads in the two-candidate-preferred count. Despite this, Venning remains optimistic, although the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) had initially assumed his main competition would come from Labor’s Karin Bolton rather than independent Anita Kuss. Due to the close race for second place, the AEC has now initiated a three-candidate-preferred count, which could significantly alter preference flows.
“If Anita Kuss overtakes Labor for second place, preference distributions would shift dramatically,” explained ABC election analyst Antony Green on ABC Radio Adelaide.
He added, “If Kuss does surpass the Labor candidate, she could receive a large portion of Labor’s preferences, which would pose a serious challenge for Venning in retaining the seat.”
To verify this scenario, the AEC is reviewing a portion of ballot papers—about 20% of votes cast for other candidates—rather than conducting a full recount.
The Liberals suffered notable defeats across South Australia on election day, failing to win back Boothby and losing Sturt. These results drew harsh criticism from senior party figures, with former senator Simon Birmingham calling the outcome “diabolical” and ex-foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer describing the campaign as “an absolute shambles.”
Kuss has refrained from commenting, saying she will wait for the AEC to complete the vote count.
“I believe in respecting the democratic process,” she stated.
While Venning acknowledged feeling anxious, he maintained hope.
“I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous,” he admitted. “But seeing how the numbers are unfolding, we still feel confident about holding Grey.”
Across Australia, the AEC is conducting three-candidate-preferred counts in 12 seats. SA’s state AEC manager, Cameron Stokes, told ABC Radio Adelaide these counts are becoming more frequent due to the increasing presence of independents and smaller parties.
Stokes noted, “These counts don’t alter the final result, but they help clarify the picture sooner. We don’t make projections — we let the numbers determine the outcome.”
A similar count is underway in Mayo, in the Adelaide Hills, where incumbent Rebekha Sharkie is expected to retain her seat.
“I’m humbled by the support,” Sharkie said, citing figures showing her with 41% in the three-party-preferred count, ahead of the Liberals and Labor, who were both just under 30%.
