Robertson Electorate Again in National Spotlight as Bellwether Seat Faces Tight Race
For more than four decades, the electorate of Robertson, nestled on the southern end of New South Wales’ Central Coast, has earned its reputation as Australia’s most reliable bellwether seat — the party that wins here has gone on to form government in every federal election since 1983.
Now, as the 2025 election looms, Robertson is once again being watched closely, with both major parties vying to win over a population facing rising cost-of-living pressures, housing stress, and concerns around healthcare and infrastructure.
A Seat That Reflects the Nation
Dr Jill Sheppard, a political expert from the Australian National University, said Robertson’s diversity makes it a national microcosm.
“What bellwether seats tend to be are microcosms of the whole country,” she explained. “They have a little bit of city, a little bit of country, and some suburbs in the middle.”
As such, shifts in voter sentiment here can be an early indicator of broader national trends.
A Struggle to Keep Up
Local residents are feeling the economic pinch.
Sally Baker, who runs Mary Mac’s Place — a community kitchen and food pantry in Woy Woy — said demand for services has doubled since last year.
“We’re seeing many more families. They’re struggling to make ends meet,” she said.
Long-time local Grant Killen, from Copacabana, said even basic rental options are now out of reach for younger generations.
“Just a one-bedroom share is $300 to $400 a week — that’s not manageable for many,” he said.
High Stakes for Incumbent and Challenger
Labor MP Dr Gordon Reid, who won the seat in 2022 with a 2.26% margin, is now campaigning for a second term. He says he has knocked on more than 20,000 doors, identifying cost of living, healthcare access, and infrastructure as key concerns.
“People are doing it tough, and they want to see action,” he said.
Former Liberal MP Lucy Wicks, who held the seat for three terms, is running again and focusing on housing affordability.
“Families can’t even find a roof over their heads — that’s the lived experience here,” she said.
A Crowded Field
The ballot for Robertson includes:
- Gordon Reid – Labor (incumbent)
- Lucy Wicks – Liberal
- Cheryl Wallace – The Greens
- Matthew Lloyd – One Nation
- Lisa Bellamy – Independent
- David Borg – Trumpet of Patriots
- Tom Lillicrap – Legalise Cannabis Party
With a mix of regional and suburban demographics, and issues ranging from mortgage stress to mental health support, Robertson remains a critical seat in deciding who will form Australia’s next government.
As voter Gary Williams put it:
“We’ve worked our butts off. Now I’m scared for my kids — they can’t afford rent or a home.”
