Tasmanian Treasurer Guy Barnett is facing a difficult political landscape as he prepares to deliver his first state budget later this week. The timing could hardly be worse for the Rockliff government, which is grappling with falling poll numbers, electoral setbacks, and mounting pressure over its controversial Macquarie Point stadium proposal.
Fresh EMRS polling shows the state Liberal Party trailing Labor for the first time since 2009, compounding the blow from the recent federal election in which the Liberals lost all of their Tasmanian Lower House seats. The situation worsened over the weekend with poor results in the Legislative Council elections, where the Liberals are likely to lose a key Upper House seat in Montgomery to independent Casey Hiscutt.
Political analyst Kevin Bonham noted the decline reflects broader issues with the Liberal brand, not just isolated federal fallout. “There just seems to be no appetite for voters to elect more government members to the Legislative Council,” he said, adding that voters appear eager to see more scrutiny of the government.
The Liberals also underperformed in the Nelson division, where independent Meg Webb dominated, including in traditional Liberal strongholds like Sandy Bay.
Loss in Montgomery Signals Strategic Shift
Casey Hiscutt, son of outgoing Liberal MLC Leonie Hiscutt, appears set to win Montgomery as an independent — a strategic move Dr Bonham suggested was key to his success. “If Casey had run as a Liberal, someone would have outflanked him as an independent,” Bonham said.
His victory would further reduce the government’s numbers in the already difficult-to-navigate Upper House, where the Liberals hold only three of 15 seats. Passing legislation now requires crossbench support, and that includes persuading five of the remaining MLCs — no easy task given the strong independent and Green presence.
Stadium Bill Faces Steep Path
The Macquarie Point stadium — a key part of Tasmania’s AFL team bid — is also under threat. Premier Jeremy Rockliff warned there will be no Tasmania Devils team unless legislation enabling the stadium proceeds. But with the draft bill set to face public consultation in the coming week, the timing is challenging: the project is deeply unpopular in the state’s north and north-west, areas where the Liberals have just suffered steep polling declines.
Even though Casey Hiscutt has expressed support for the stadium in principle, he has said he wants to scrutinize the legislation carefully before deciding how to vote.
Budget Day Looms Amid Fiscal and Political Pressure
Treasurer Barnett is under pressure to deliver a budget that helps rebuild public trust — a difficult task as the state heads toward nearly $10 billion in debt by 2027–28 and has no firm surplus timeline.
While Barnett has promised a “clear pathway to surplus,” he has avoided confirming whether the budget will forecast one within the next four years. He has also refused to rule out controversial measures such as public sector cuts or the sale of government assets — options that could ignite further public backlash.
Hints at possible asset sales came during a press conference, when Barnett repeatedly deflected questions about economist Saul Eslake’s long-awaited review of government business enterprises, fuelling speculation that such sales could be part of Thursday’s announcements.
A Difficult Road Ahead
The political stakes are high. With legislative gridlock in the Upper House, public hostility to key projects, and a shifting political tide, the Liberals’ task of regaining momentum looks increasingly difficult — especially as they aim to extend their time in office with a fifth straight term at the 2028 state election.
Barnett’s first budget may be a defining moment not just for him, but for the Rockliff government’s broader prospects.
