Thailand’s economy is on course to grow by 2.2% in 2025, slightly above the earlier projection of 2.1%, driven by a strong performance in the first half of the year, according to the finance ministry on Wednesday (July 30). However, officials warned that U.S. tariffs could dampen growth in the second half.
Exports—a crucial component of Thailand’s economy—are now expected to rise by 5.5% this year, compared to the earlier forecast of 2.3%, said Pornchai Thiraveja, head of the fiscal policy office.
“The economy showed solid growth in the first half, but we need to watch for the impact of U.S. tariffs in the second half,” he noted, citing forecasts based on U.S. tariffs ranging from 15% to 36%. He added that the border conflict with Cambodia has had minimal economic impact, primarily limited to property damage, as cross-border trade accounts for just over 1% of Thailand’s total exports.
While Cambodian workers represent about 12% of Thailand’s migrant labor force, the government believes businesses can find replacements if disruptions occur, Pornchai added. Meanwhile, in June, the Bank of Thailand revised its baseline growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, slightly under the 2.5% recorded in 2024.
Thailand could face tariffs of up to 36% on exports to the U.S.—its largest export market—if no agreement is reached by August 1. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira expressed optimism that talks with the U.S. would conclude before then and that the final rate would fall below 36%.
He also indicated that Thailand’s tariff levels are expected to be in line with those of regional peers. Currently, the U.S. imposes tariffs of 20% on Vietnamese exports and 19% on Indonesian goods—much lower than rates floated in April.
Meanwhile, the finance ministry has revised its foreign tourist arrival forecast downward to 34.5 million for 2025, from a previous estimate of 36.5 million. Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million visitors in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
