China Quietly Gains as the US Engages in Another War
While China publicly expresses “deep concern” over the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it likely views the situation privately as another strategic advantage. With the US once again embroiled in military conflict, this time with Iran, China stands poised to benefit — a pattern that has played out for the past two decades.
America Distracted, China Advances
Since China joined the World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001 — just three months after the 9/11 attacks — the US has been repeatedly drawn into costly wars and internal unrest: the “War on Terror,” conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, involvement in Yemen, Libya, and Syria, political turmoil including the January 6 Capitol riots, the Ukraine conflict, and now renewed tensions in Gaza and Iran. Even former President Donald Trump, who campaigned against foreign entanglements, found it difficult to resist pressures from the military establishment and US allies.
China Builds Alliances While the US Escalates Conflict
As the US becomes further entangled, China focuses on strengthening its diplomatic and economic ties. While Trump left the G7 summit last week amid tensions with allies and preparations for military strikes on Iran, Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. There, he signed the “Treaty of Permanent Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation” with leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — emphasizing mutual respect and collaboration.
War No Longer Strengthens Nations
Historically, wars were fought for conquest and resources, enriching the victors with land, wealth, and labor. In modern times, however, warfare often leads to prolonged economic strain, internal division, and weakened global standing — particularly for democratic nations like the US, whose recent military interventions have been lengthy, controversial, and costly.
The Latest Conflict Further Weakens the US
This new conflict reveals the ongoing close coordination between the US and Israel in reshaping the Middle East. As with Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Gaza, the prolonged and contentious nature of these interventions damages America’s reputation, strains its economy, and erodes global support.
Russia’s economy has been devastated by its war in Ukraine, Israel faces growing international condemnation over its actions in Gaza, and Iran faces internal pressures over its nuclear ambitions. But the greatest ongoing cost has been borne by the US, weakened by its military overreach and ongoing political strife.
China’s Strategic Focus on Industry and Technology
While the US has engaged in multiple conflicts, China has methodically pursued economic and technological dominance, starting with Deng Xiaoping’s “Four Modernisations” in the 1980s, and accelerating after joining the WTO.
China received a wake-up call in 2018 when Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada on a US extradition request, leading to US trade restrictions, particularly on semiconductor technology. Shocked by these developments, China prioritized self-sufficiency, pouring billions into developing its semiconductor industry and broader manufacturing capabilities.
This shift saw a deliberate reallocation of bank lending away from property development and toward industrial innovation, positioning China to achieve near-complete independence across key sectors like chemicals, automobiles, robotics, and renewable energy.
The Cost of Endless US Wars
While China has expanded its industrial capabilities without engaging in war, the US has spent at least $6 trillion on military interventions over the past two decades. These conflicts have not only drained financial resources but also deeply divided American society, especially regarding wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Gaza, and now Iran.
Trump, while initiating a trade war aimed at rebuilding US manufacturing, has simultaneously escalated tensions with Iran. The recent repeal of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act — which subsidized renewable energy — may further hinder America’s efforts to strengthen its industrial base.
Will China Abandon Its Peaceful Strategy and Invade Taiwan?
A full-scale invasion of Taiwan remains unlikely. China may consider economic or military pressure, such as a blockade, but its leadership is aware that a destructive conflict would undermine Taiwan’s economy — something they would likely prefer to preserve. Moreover, China has witnessed how US military aggression has backfired over the past 24 years, reinforcing its cautious approach.
