As the AFL season nears its final stretch, several struggling clubs are reflecting on their place in the competition hierarchy.
In professional sport, every team enters the season with optimism, regardless of past results. New tactics, improved fitness programs, and fresh recruits are seen as reasons for hope. But once the season gets underway, the harsh truth about a team’s actual standing becomes clear.
Carlton began 2025 as one of the favourites for the premiership. However, the club has since underperformed, continuing its decline following a surprise preliminary final appearance in 2023.
Michael Voss is the latest coach entrusted with reviving Carlton, a once-dominant club that’s been unable to replicate its past success. To his credit, Voss has fared better than many of the seven coaches who have taken over since David Parkin last led the Blues to a flag.
But this job has overwhelmed coaches of all backgrounds over the past 30 years, regardless of whether they were newcomers or had established reputations.
Despite their disappointing season, Voss appears safe for now. Carlton president Rob Priestley said the club would take a measured approach to deciding its coaching future beyond 2025. Almost exactly two years ago, the Blues stood by Voss under intense scrutiny, a decision that sparked a remarkable late-season turnaround.
Now, in near-identical circumstances, Voss will be allowed to finish the season. However, unless he delivers a similarly miraculous revival, it’s unlikely he’ll see out the final year of his contract in 2026.
Carlton is one of five clubs — along with Essendon, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, and St Kilda — to have cycled through at least three coaches in the past 10 years. Unsurprisingly, none have achieved consistent success during that time.
The responsibility of navigating the next step falls to incoming CEO Graham Wright, the architect of Collingwood’s 2023 premiership. Wright previously oversaw the smooth transition from Nathan Buckley to Craig McRae, a move that proved highly effective.
Should Carlton move on from Voss, supporters will hope Wright can make an equally shrewd decision.
Voss is among a group of current coaches in their second stint, alongside Brad Scott (Essendon), Damien Hardwick (Gold Coast), Alastair Clarkson (North Melbourne), and Ross Lyon (St Kilda, in his third stint overall). Of them, Hardwick is best positioned for future success, thanks to a strong Suns list and academy talent.
These coaches have all had to stabilise clubs with turbulent cultures — roles that require both football strategy and leadership off the field. Voss has restored a level of competence at Carlton, which is notable. But the expectation now is to win.
With Carlton’s stature as a major Victorian club, big-name coaches like John Longmire, Adam Simpson, and Ken Hinkley are likely to be considered. However, recent AFL history suggests such “retread” coaches rarely bring premiership success.
Since David Parkin’s 1995 triumph, only three coaches have won premierships at their second or third clubs: Malcolm Blight with Adelaide in 1997–98, Leigh Matthews with Brisbane from 2001–03, and Mick Malthouse with Collingwood in 2010.
This trend marks a shift from earlier eras. In the decade before Carlton’s last premiership, six out of ten AFL flags were won by coaches who had previously led other clubs.
One reason newer coaches now find more success may be due to their backgrounds — often having served long apprenticeships at successful clubs.
Take Hawthorn’s 2013 coaching staff, for example: Chris Fagan was football boss, and Luke Beveridge and Adam Simpson were assistants. All three went on to coach premiership teams.
The modern AFL era demands continuous adaptation. That’s why it’s rare to see coaches win premierships decades apart, with Geelong’s Chris Scott being a rare exception.
Interestingly, this shift is echoed in the NRL. Before Ivan Cleary’s recent three-peat with Penrith, the last recycled coach to win was Wayne Bennett in 2010 — the same year Malthouse won in the AFL.
Despite Carlton’s poor form, Voss retains strong support from his players, including captain Patrick Cripps. At just 49, Voss is still young by coaching standards and remains driven to win a flag as a coach, just as he did three times as a Brisbane captain.
The choice facing Wright is monumental. With a track record of building premiership teams, his call on whether to stick with Voss or make a change could define Carlton’s next decade.
These tough decisions are exactly what CEOs are paid to make — and Wright has never shied away from making them.
As Carlton — and other clubs — weigh their coaching futures, they may find that learning from the past is the best way to move forward.
