Power dynamics are shifting in the Middle East. Israel’s recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the assassinations of senior Iranian security figures signal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s growing readiness to act unilaterally, even in defiance of the Trump administration.
While former US President Donald Trump had been pushing for a diplomatic solution to escalating Israel-Iran tensions, he appeared unable to restrain Netanyahu, despite their close relationship.
The timing of Israel’s actions — now prompting retaliation from Iran — is significant. Though US officials likely recognized they couldn’t fully prevent Israel’s strikes, they had hoped to delay them until after scheduled nuclear deal negotiations with Iran, set for June 15.
Netanyahu defies US pressure
Netanyahu has long made protecting Israel central to his political image. Hours before the strikes, Trump publicly stated, “As long as I think there will be an agreement [with Iran], I don’t want them going in.”
Although Washington has tried in the past to exert influence over Israel, its leverage appears increasingly limited. Trump had previously secured a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in January, following diplomatic efforts initiated under Joe Biden. But in return, Netanyahu won major concessions: sanctions on West Bank settlers were lifted, and the US resumed supplying 2,000-pound bombs to Israel.
At the same time, US influence over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has been minimal. The White House also failed to stop Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon or its campaign to dismantle Hezbollah, Iran’s most prominent proxy in the region.
In a major shift, Israel didn’t notify Washington in advance of its October 2024 airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah — a telling sign of Israel’s readiness to act independently.
Israel’s expansion of the Gaza conflict into Lebanon proved to be a critical turning point. With strong domestic support and increasing rocket fire from Hezbollah, Israel launched sustained airstrikes on southern Beirut, killing key Hezbollah officials.
Hezbollah, once regarded as the world’s most heavily armed non-state militia, struggled to recover. Without its top leadership to rally new recruits, the group collapsed structurally. By November 2024, Hezbollah accepted a US-brokered ceasefire.
A weakened Iran
Hezbollah’s downfall is a major setback for Iran. The group had around 50,000 fighters and a stockpile of up to 200,000 missiles and rockets. But the loss of leaders in both Hezbollah and Hamas — two long-time Iranian allies — has left Iran with few regional assets.
Faced with a deep economic crisis, Iran is now financially incapable of rebuilding these alliances. For years, it had sought to expand its influence by supporting proxy groups and regimes, spending over $US16 billion to keep Bashar al-Assad in power during Syria’s civil war.
But with Assad’s fall and Turkey backing the rebel forces, Iran lost its strategic corridor for transferring weapons into Lebanon. Today, Ankara, not Tehran, sees itself as the regional victor in the wake of Syria’s collapse.
US influence in decline
Meanwhile, the United States is losing ground in the Middle East. Trump’s regional trade ambitions — especially in the Gulf — now appear at risk as instability grows.
Envoy Steve Witkoff had been scheduled to attend talks in Oman, aiming to strike a deal with Tehran: halt uranium enrichment in return for easing economic sanctions. Trump warned Israel against jeopardizing those negotiations, but Netanyahu proceeded regardless.
Some US officials had hoped the tensions between Israel and Iran were simply strategic posturing ahead of talks. But despite being warned, Washington failed to dissuade Israel from launching its attack.
While the US still provides $US3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel, its influence has clearly diminished. Whether political pressure at home could lead to a reconsideration of that aid remains uncertain.
Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in 2024 may have simply been the beginning. Many analysts believe Iran was always the ultimate target, and Netanyahu now sees a historic opportunity to reshape the Middle East’s power structure — with or without US approval.
