Two current members of Tasmania’s Legislative Council are expected to hold onto their seats following Saturday’s elections, though the outcome of the third contested seat remains uncertain.
Elections took place in three of the 15 Upper House divisions. According to political analyst Kevin Bonham, the electorates of Nelson and Pembroke—both in southern Tasmania—are likely to remain with their incumbents, independent Meg Webb and Labor’s Luke Edmunds, respectively.
Dr Bonham noted Ms Webb secured a strong result and could potentially win outright on primary votes alone, while Mr Edmunds had such a commanding lead in first preferences that no opponent was likely to overtake him.
“It’s not a great showing for the Liberal Party,” Dr Bonham added. “It indicates the party’s challenges extend beyond the federal level.”
In an update issued Saturday night, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) confirmed Ms Webb had secured 51% of the first-preference vote in Nelson.
Ms Webb called it “a resounding vote for an independent Upper House, and for greater integrity, transparency and accountability in politics.” Approximately 1,800 early votes still need to be tallied in the division.
In Pembroke, located on Hobart’s eastern shore, the TEC reported Mr Edmunds held a “strong lead” with nearly 44% of first-preference votes.
Montgomery Too Close to Call
The north-western seat of Montgomery is more closely contested, following the retirement of Liberal MLC Leonie Hiscutt. Her son, independent candidate Casey Hiscutt, currently leads with almost 32% of first-preference votes. He is followed by Liberal candidate and former senator Stephen Parry with 29%, and Greens candidate Darren Briggs with 21%.
Electoral Commissioner Andrew Hawkey said the outcome in Montgomery would depend on preference distributions.
“We’ve got two candidates very close in the count… we’ll need to allocate the preferences from lower-polling candidates to determine the winner,” Mr Hawkey said.
Dr Bonham predicted Mr Hiscutt would likely prevail unless Mr Parry receives stronger-than-expected preference flows. A victory for Mr Hiscutt would increase the number of independents in the Upper House to nine.
“That could complicate things for the government, particularly when Labor backs legislation that independents remain cautious about,” Dr Bonham said.
He also noted that while the Hiscutt name gave Casey an edge, his support for a controversial stadium project might have swayed some voters toward the Greens and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.
Vote Counting Continues
Counting will resume on Monday with the inclusion of pre-poll, provisional, and out-of-division ballots. Postal votes will be counted on Thursday.
Despite wet and windy conditions, Commissioner Hawkey said voter turnout appeared solid across all three divisions.
He also noted an expanded telephone voting system was used by 66 voters with a print disability for the first time this year.
Tasmania’s Legislative Council operates on a rotating six-year term cycle, with elections held annually in two or three divisions.
