Election 2025: Six Wildcard Seats That Could Shake Up the Political Map
In the race to form government, marginal seats are the main battlegrounds. This is where the campaign spending is focused, and where party leaders spend the bulk of their time — because these seats often determine who governs.
But with growing support for the crossbench, independents, and minor parties, the traditional two-party preferred vote is becoming less reliable as a predictor of outcomes. As Australia’s political landscape becomes increasingly fragmented, local contests driven by individual candidates and specific issues are emerging as potential game-changers.
While these six seats aren’t necessarily expected to change hands, they are among those most likely to produce surprise results — and if they do flip, it could redraw the electoral map.
1. Franklin (TAS)
Labor has held Franklin since 1993, but sitting MP Julie Collins is under pressure this year. Independent Peter George, a former ABC journalist, is campaigning on environmental issues — particularly community backlash against the local salmon industry.
The debate escalated in March, drawing international attention from actor Leonardo DiCaprio, after both major parties backed legislation allowing the industry to operate in Macquarie Harbour. George has the backing of environmentalist Bob Brown, and his prospects may improve after the Greens candidate withdrew post-nomination due to dual citizenship. However, the Liberal Party is preferencing Labor, which could hinder his chances. Former Liberal MP and current Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley is also running as an independent, further complicating the race.
2. Dickson (QLD)
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson his first campaign stop, a move seen either as a genuine attempt to flip the seat or early psychological warfare.
Dutton holds Dickson by a narrow 1.7% margin. Although first-term governments typically lose ground, opposition leaders rarely lose their seats — in fact, it’s never happened before at a federal level. Still, Labor has significantly ramped up advertising in Dickson and continues to send senior MPs to the seat. Independent candidate Ellie Smith may also split the vote, adding another layer of uncertainty.
3. Calare (NSW)
Calare, in the NSW central west, is shaping up to be a tight three-way race. Incumbent MP Andrew Gee, originally elected for the Nationals in 2016, is recontesting as an independent after leaving the party in protest over its stance on the Voice to Parliament.
The Nationals’ new candidate is Sam Farraway, but both he and Gee risk splitting the conservative vote, potentially boosting independent Kate Hook, who finished second in 2022 and is running again. With three strong contenders, the result is wide open.
4. Moore (WA)
Moore, in Perth’s north, has long been a Liberal stronghold. But after massive swings to Labor in WA at the last federal election, it’s now held by just a 0.9% margin.
Adding to the uncertainty, sitting Liberal MP Ian Goodenough lost preselection to Vince Connelly, a former MP for the abolished seat of Stirling. Goodenough is running as an independent and isn’t recommending preferences. Labor’s Tom French is contesting the seat, and independent Nathan Barton — backed by Climate 200 — is also in the race, making this a highly unpredictable contest.
