Iran and E3 Hold Nuclear Talks in Istanbul as US Offers New Deal Framework
Negotiators from Iran and the E3 — comprising the UK, France, and Germany — have met in Istanbul to advance nuclear talks, aiming to build on the momentum generated by recent US-led negotiations that began in April.
The Istanbul meeting followed a significant development: the Trump administration presented Iran with its first formal proposal during the fourth round of negotiations in Muscat, Oman. President Donald Trump described the proposal as an “olive branch,” stating on May 13 that while the offer wouldn’t last indefinitely, discussions were “very serious” and that the two sides were “close to a deal.”
Iran has indicated its willingness to eliminate its stock of highly enriched uranium — intended for nuclear weapons — in exchange for relief from harsh economic sanctions.
According to Joost Hiltermann, a special adviser at the International Crisis Group, a nuclear agreement is feasible if it balances Iran’s civilian nuclear ambitions with Washington’s demand for limits on enrichment. “It’s not possible if the US insists on zero enrichment,” Hiltermann said, noting that such a demand is a red line for Tehran. A compromise could resemble the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), even if it goes by a different name.
Europe Prepares for ‘Snapback’ Sanctions
The three European powers have warned they will trigger the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism — reinstating UN sanctions lifted under the original deal — if a new agreement is not reached by August. This move underscores the urgency of the ongoing negotiations.
Dispute Over Enrichment Levels
Under the 2015 JCPOA, Iran capped uranium enrichment at 3.67% and reduced its stockpile to 300 kilograms. However, Tehran has since increased enrichment levels, asserting that enrichment is its sovereign right and vital for civilian use. Iran has expressed readiness to limit both enrichment levels and stockpiles but remains firm in rejecting any dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure.
Although the Trump administration initially demanded complete dismantlement, its latest proposal appears to soften that stance, including measures such as enrichment caps, stockpile reductions, and enhanced oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — similar to the JCPOA framework.
In return, Iran seeks sanctions relief, particularly re-entry into the SWIFT global payment system, which it has been largely cut off from due to US restrictions. Tehran is also demanding guarantees that the US will not unilaterally withdraw from any future agreement, as it did in 2018.
Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East analyst at RANE Network, noted that Iran’s primary motivation is economic survival after years of crippling US-led sanctions. He added that both sides seem more open to compromise, driven in part by President Trump’s desire to secure a foreign policy legacy in his final term.
Ballistic Missile Programme Remains a Sticking Point
Another major issue is Iran’s ballistic missile programme, which the US and Israel argue could be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran refuses to negotiate over its missiles, citing national defence. However, Bohl suggested Iran might show some flexibility for goodwill, though significant concessions are unlikely. “Ballistic missiles are one of Iran’s few effective conventional deterrents,” he said.
Trump’s recent shift toward more dovish voices within his administration may open the door for compromise, potentially easing demands for an end to Iran’s missile programme and full dismantlement of military nuclear infrastructure.
Hiltermann cautioned that even if sanctions are lifted, international businesses may remain wary of investing in Iran due to fears the US could once again reverse its position. “They won’t trust the Trump administration not to change its mind down the line,” he said.
